Five Team Parlay – College Football – Week 8
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Time For Another Winning Parlay
Last week was a rough one (Rodney Dangerfield voice), Our five-team parlay in college football week 7 took some bad beats. They also had real surprises, like Illinois over Maryland. Let’s look at our selections this week.
Central Florida @ #6 Oklahoma (OVER 67.5) – UCF’s last three losses (Kansas, Baylor, and Kansas State) have all eclipsed 70 points. With the Sooners averaging 45 and the Knights 34, this should be a substantial point total. Furthermore, both teams allow a healthy amount of yards each game. On Action Network, it shows 57% of the public money taking UCF and the 19.5 points. It also shows an insider, listed as an “expert” confident in taking the Over. Since the Sooners are 5-0 against the spread, their 20-point assumed win will likely see them score around their average, of 45. That means UCF would need 23 points, well within their capability. NOTE: This will be the first-ever meeting between the two teams.
Mississippi State @ Arkansas (-7) – Neither team has won in the SEC this year so far. However, Arkansas has had some close contests with ranked teams. 24-21 against Bama, 27-20 against Ole Miss, and 34-31 against LSU. Meanwhile, two of the three SEC losses for Miss St were blowouts. 40-17 against Bama, and 41-14 to LSU. On paper, Arkansas is a far better team. The question will be, are the Hogs motivated at this point? The team says it is, and excited to be in front of the home crowd. They have a QB (KJ Jefferson) who’s completing 66% of his passes for 207 yards per game. Miss State’s pass defense is rather lackluster, and they let lowly Western Michigan hang around last week. NOTE: 68% of the money is on Arkansas.
Maction Time
Akron @ Bowling Green (OVER 37.5) – In the era of spread offenses and ghost defenses, this o/u seems like a steal. Last year the two teams combined for 60 points. Neither team has improved in any phase, but the defenses will have plenty of chances to fail. Akron is a threat to not score, but Bowling Green scored 38 on their own against Georgia Tech. The public money is on Akron and getting 9 points, so even bettors see some points being scored here. NOTE: This will be the 30th meeting between the teams. Bowling Green leads the series 19-10. The past two meetings combined for 55 or more points.
Washington State @ #9 Oregon (-20) – That’s a lot of points to lay in a Power 5 contest where both teams were ranked at the start of October. However, Washington State just got absolutely rolled by Arizona a week ago, 44-6. Now they face a ticked-off Ducks team, at home with that wild crowd. Plus, Oregon knows if they want a shot at the playoffs, they must start annihilating teams and make the PAC title game. This is no time to be a Cougar. Worse yet, Washington State’s defense gives up massive amounts of yards. Oregon should easily slap 50 on them. 62% of the public bettors are laying the points and taking the Ducks. NOTE: Oregon hasn’t beaten Washington State by more than 20 since 2012 (51-26).
Rivalry Game
#2 Michigan @ Michigan State (+24) – I hope I don’t regret this. I’m not sure how Sparty keeps it close. All I can say is, it’s a rivalry and Michigan is under another investigation. Last year’s game was a 22-point Wolverine victory in Ann Arbor. These teams had a fight last year, and both squads are probably in a bad mood. This is the Spartans’ playoff game. They have nothing else going for them at this point. They’ll lose, but I’m betting they lose by 21, not 41. This is a gut play. This game is typically close, with a blowout here and there. We’ll see if Sparty comes with wrinkles since they know their typical calls are probably compromised. Will they confuse Michigan, or help them? NOTE: 67% of the public money is on Michigan and laying the points (at the -19.5 open).