2024 College basketball odds
Futures bets to make now to win March Madness
Now that the NFL season has concluded, college basketball is the next sport for public bettors to tackle. We have compiled the latest 2024 College basketball odds to win it all.
And if this season has indicated what we are in for in the Big Dance, it will be wild.
There have been four schools jostling for the top spot in the rankings this season, with UConn holding No. 1 unanimously this week — its sixth straight week at the top of the ladder.
While they are riding a 14-game winning streak and are currently the odds-on favorite to win the tournament at +500, the NCAA Top 16 Committee still ranks them behind Purdue as the number one overall seed.
Anyone Dominant?
It’s not necessarily a good idea to consider the Huskies as a guarantee in my NCAA future wagers. This is because there is no one team that is truly dominant in college basketball this season. Moreover, the gap between the great teams and the middle has decreased. From a betting perspective, it may be a good idea to put some money on a couple of strong teams with better odds in the futures market, as this may offer good value.
To make informed college basketball futures bets, there are a few key metrics that I like to use, such as Ken Pom’s efficiency ratings. These ratings are important because of the past trends in the sport: of the last 21 champs, 19 have been in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Where does your team fall in @tsnmike LATEST bracket?! 👀 🔥 pic.twitter.com/DpeldNULks
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) February 20, 2024
Initial Contenders
Before we begin, let’s consider which teams are most likely to win in the future: Houston, Purdue, UConn, North Carolina, Arizona, and Tennessee are the main contenders. However, other teams could potentially join this group before the tournament, such as Illinois, Auburn, Marquette, Duke, and BYU. As we approach Selection Sunday, which is just over three weeks away, let’s take a closer look at the six teams that I believe have the best chance of winning the championship in Phoenix this coming April.
Houston
Of that top group of six teams, Houston has the best defense in the country, and it has played a fairly difficult schedule, with all three losses coming against teams that will be in the NCAA Tournament. But Kelvin Sampson’s team has offensive issues that will hinder their title chances: 271st in 2-point shooting and 306th (!) in free-throw shooting.
Purdue
Purdue has never made it to the Final Four; maybe this is the year?
The Boilermakers are the opposite of Houston. They are ranked second in offense and have played the toughest schedule in the country. After last season’s first-round embarrassment against 16th-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson, I suspect the public won’t be interested in picking the Boilermakers to win the title.
My biggest concerns are poor free-throw shooting (216th in the country) and the fact they haven’t had a game decided by three points or fewer since November.
My other concern is closing out games. I’m a Purdue grad, so I’ve watched every game this year. They often jump to early leads and seemingly lose steam or interest, and I watch those games trickle away. This is a concern going into the tournament.
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UConn
Connecticut, the defending champions, is currently one of the most dominant teams in college basketball. They have been steamrolling every opponent in the Big East, including the then-ranked No. 4 Marquette, whom they defeated 81-53 in a dominant performance on February 17th. Their team’s balance is exceptional, and they can compete with any team in the country. With a healthy 7-footer Donovan Clingan in their ranks, the Huskies will be a tough opponent to beat. However, it’s uncertain if there is any value in betting on them at this number.
Arizona
It is noted that the Pac-12 conference has experienced a decline in powerhouses such as USC and UCLA. However, Arizona has emerged as the leading team in the conference and a strong contender for the title. Last year, Arizona won the Pac-12 tournament but was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. The primary concern is their shooting and guard play, as they are a tall team and are likely to face many zone defenses. While their competitors often easily defeat weaker teams, Arizona has lost to two such teams (Stanford and Oregon State).
Tennessee
Tennessee’s coach, Rick Barnes, has a track record of struggling in March, but his team this year is highly skilled and poses a significant threat. In November, they faced off against some of the toughest teams in the country, including Purdue, Kansas, and UNC, but unfortunately lost all three matches. Tennessee’s bench is not as strong as some of their competitors, so if they run into foul trouble, it could be problematic.
The ONLY team with first place votes this week @UConnMBB 💥 pic.twitter.com/Xkg31maPAg
— FOX College Hoops (@CBBonFOX) February 19, 2024
North Carolina
North Carolina is worth keeping an eye on as they may surprise you. Although they have had some issues with their offense, they recently suffered losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse, which are not likely to make it to the NCAA Tournament, unless a miracle happens.
Just like in the stock market, it’s advisable to buy when the prices go down.
It’s true that having a freshman point guard in March can be risky, but Elliot Cadeau has been doing an amazing job. RJ Davis and Armando Bacot were runners-up in the title game against Kansas two years ago. They possess both the skills and experience needed to make it far this year.
Auburn
Keep in mind the following text: Auburn is a team to keep an eye on as an outsider. They had impressive rankings in both offense and defense but dropped out of the top 10 following a challenging loss to Kentucky. I am not as optimistic about the Tigers due to their weaker strength of schedule compared to the other contenders, except Duke. My view of the SEC is not particularly positive, as the conference contains some very good teams but none that are considered truly elite.
Futures bets, in order
1. North Carolina (+1800)
2. Purdue (+650)
3. Arizona (+1200)
4. Houston (+950)
5. Tennessee (+1200)