Texas vs Washington Betting Advice
It’s time for our Texas vs Washington Betting Advice. We already placed some wagers on the other semifinal matchup here.
College Football Playoff semifinal game, betting guide
Game Details
- Matchup: No. 3 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 2 Washington Huskies
- Date: Monday, Jan. 1, 2024
- Time: 8:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Texas -175, Washington +150
- Spread: Texas -4 (-108), Washington +4 (-112)
- Total: Over/Under 63.5 (-110/-110)
The upcoming bowl game schedule for this winter includes a College Football Playoff match-up between the No. 3 Texas Longhorns and No. 2 Washington Huskies on New Year’s Day. Both teams are preparing to face each other in New Orleans with high stakes as the winner of the 90th annual Sugar Bowl will advance to the National Championship to face the winner of the Rose Bowl between Alabama and Michigan.
Despite having a lower ranking than Washington, Texas is favored to win this game and has shorter championship odds. On FanDuel’s futures board, the Longhorns are third of the remaining four teams with +250 championship odds, while the Huskies have the longest odds at +650.
Moneyline
The Longhorns enter this game as the favorite with nearly a 2/1 advantage on the moneyline. However, one might question if this is justified.
Having won the Big 12 Championship by crushing Oklahoma State 49-21, Texas is currently 12-1. Their sole defeat this year was a narrow 34-30 loss to No. 12 Oklahoma on neutral ground in Week 6.
With seven consecutive victories, including three in a row with a combined winning margin of 88 points, the Longhorns are in their prime at the perfect time. They have demonstrated their ability against strong opponents, being 4-1 against ranked teams this year and 6-1 when playing on the road or at neutral sites.
safe travels, Longhorn Nation! 🤘#HookEm | @BMWUSA pic.twitter.com/KDWW0kwFzz
— Texas Longhorns (@TexasLonghorns) December 30, 2023
Sophomore quarterback Quinn Ewers leads the Texas team, which has shown significant improvement this year after an impressive freshman season. Ewers completed 70.7% of his passes for 3,161 yards and 21 touchdowns with only six interceptions.
Star QBs lead the way
Ewers will go head-to-head with Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. Penix Jr. has excelled with the Huskies since transferring from Indiana and finished as the runner-up in the 2023 Heisman Trophy voting.
Penix Jr. is the most challenging quarterback that the Longhorns have faced this year. He completed 65.9% of his passes for 4,218 yards and 33 touchdowns with nine interceptions. As a talented pocket passer, he is expected to be a first-round pick in the NFL draft next spring.
The senior quarterback led Washington to an unbeaten 13-0 record this season, including five wins against ranked opponents and six wins on the road or at neutral sites.
Close Calls
Despite having an undefeated record, the Huskies have not dominated their competition. After four landslide wins to begin the season, their nine subsequent victories were all by 10 points or less.
Their last three wins have been particularly close, with a combined winning margin of only eight points.
Texas has lost more players to the transfer portal than Washington, but neither team has lost any major contributors likely to impact this game. Both teams should have near-full strength, setting the stage for an evenly-matched contest.
Given the Longhorns’ recent momentum and domination, we prefer them to win on the moneyline.
Point Spread
The spread favors Texas by 4 points, which is a significant margin considering how closely matched these two teams are on paper.
Texas has a more balanced team than Washington. The Longhorns have one of the strongest offenses and defenses in the country, scoring an average of 36.2 points per game (16th) while allowing only 17.5 (13th).
Their offense has averaged 475.9 total yards per game (ninth) and 6.6 yards per play (14th), while their defense has allowed 321.9 yards per game (23rd) and 5.0 yards per play (26th).
Not surprisingly, Texas has had many lopsided victories this season. Nine out of their 12 wins have been by double digits, including three of their four victories against ranked opponents.
Despite having the toughest strength of schedule in college football, according to College Football Reference, Texas still managed to go 7-5-1 against the spread.
Washington has one of the strongest offenses in the nation and was arguably slightly better than Texas, ranking fifth in yards per play (7.2) and 11th in both points (37.7) and yards (469.1) per game.
However, the Huskies’ defense was not as strong, allowing an average of 23.6 PPG (50th) and 397.2 YPG (93rd).
Despite winning every game and having a slightly easier strength of schedule (sixth), Washington finished worse than Texas against the spread at 6-6-1.
Based on the statistics, there isn’t much separating these two teams to justify a 4.5-point spread. Given the elite level of both offenses and the Huskies’ tendency to play close games, this matchup should be a back-and-forth battle that could be decided by a field goal.
In such a game, it’s safer to take the points with Washington.