Super Bowl LVIII Betting
Into the weeds of the prop market
This will be my final Super Bowl LVIII betting article. I promised my other half it’s her day today before I settle into the pregame festivities tomorrow. First, click the banner below to support grassroots sports and get a deposit bonus of up to $1,000 and a welcome bonus of $200! Even better, MyBookie streams the events right on their platform, no cable subscription is needed!
I’ve covered Super Bowl LVIII from head to toe with prop bets on all sides of the ball – passing, receiving, rushing, defense/special teams, the luxury box – as well as who’ll score and what’ll happen first. All that remains to close Super Bowl week is to dig deep into what’s left to bet.
Highest-scoring half: 2nd half (-110 or better)
We will revisit a successful bet we made in the AFC championship. This bet was based on the Chiefs’ difference in scoring between their first and second halves. Their first-half scoring ranked sixth this season, while their second-half scoring ranked 27th.
Every week, Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan showcase their expertise in the first 15 plays of the game. During the playoffs, the Chiefs have scored a touchdown, a field goal, and another touchdown in their opening drives. Resulting in first-half totals of 16, 13, and 17 points.
On the other hand, the 49ers scored only seven points in the first half of each of their two playoff games, which goes against their regular-season trend of scoring the fourth-most first-half points. It’s worth noting that they scored slightly more first-half points than the Chiefs during the regular season.
My Bet: Take the second half. With the Niner’s first-half struggles and the immensity of the Super Bowl, look for both teams to take their foot off the break after adjusting at halftime.
It’s worth noting, that MyBookie has over 320 prop bets for this game! Click their banner in this article and get bonuses in time for the big game!!
49ers win 3rd quarter by shutout: Yes (+260)
We can consider an interesting strategy that involves taking advantage of the Chiefs’ second-half scoring struggles, while still being mindful of Patrick Mahomes’ fourth-quarter expertise. To make things more exciting, we could place some bets on the 49ers preventing the Chiefs from scoring in the third quarter. The 49ers have demonstrated their ability to adapt and develop good momentum in the second half of their two playoff games. There’s a decent chance the Chiefs are silenced for the first quarter coming out of halftime.
The team to score the longest touchdown: 49ers (-135)
The 49ers have made 29 explosive plays with the ball in their possession. The Chiefs have only made 15. This means that 66% of the big plays have been made by the 49ers. If translated into a moneyline, this would be equivalent to -200. Therefore, while the 49ers are correctly favored, a price of -135 is still a little low. Although Kansas City has more supporting characters with long gains, they are not expected to score a long touchdown on Sunday. It is possible that a defensive touchdown could end up being the longest TD scored, but both teams have an equal chance of finding the end zone that way.
Largest lead of the game: Under 14.5 (-125)
Big leads in NFL games are quite common. As demonstrated by the Lions’ 17-point lead against the 49ers in the NFC championship game. However, such a lead does not necessarily imply that the game will be uncompetitive or unexciting. Despite the 49ers having a historically efficient offense and the Chiefs having Mahomes, the game is expected to be closely contested due to the conservative approach of both team coaches. The game is being lined very close to a pick’em, and the game total of 47.5 is not excessively high, which makes it less likely that either team will build a three-score lead.
Will there be overtime?: Yes (+800)
We can finish Super Bowl week with a fun bet, even though it’s not based on probability. Our sponsor has one of the best prices in the market at +800 for the game going to overtime. Which means it has an implied edge over other sportsbooks. The NFL changed the playoff overtime rules two offseasons ago to give both teams a chance to have the ball.
However, none of the four playoff games last year that were lined at a field goal or shorter went to overtime. Neither did three more this postseason. The Chiefs narrowly avoided overtime in two closely-lined games last year with late game-winning field goals, including in Super Bowl LVII.
One of the four tightly-lined matchups last year was derailed by Brock Purdy’s arm injury, and the Jaguars beat the Chargers by one point in another. The Texans blew out the Browns in one of this year’s short-spread games, the Lions edged the Rams by one, and the Chiefs and Bills seemed likely to go to overtime until Buffalo botched its last drive.
Six of seven games that were expected to be close and played out that way and three of those included the Chiefs. Despite circumstances leading to overtime being avoided, there’s reason to believe that there’s better than a 10% chance of overtime between evenly matched playoff teams due to such narrow margins.
Bet at your own risk, these are just ideas and there are no guarantees!