NFL conference championship betting trends
Mahomes is 11-5 ATS (68.8%) and 13-3 SU (81.3%) as a starter in the playoffs in his career
Our NFL conference championship betting trends are here. Make your bets on MyBookie (banner above) and you not only get a deposit bonus but also a welcome bonus. MyBookie also streams the games right on their platform, no cable subscription is needed!
Patrick Mahomes is an underdog in consecutive weeks for the first time since Weeks 1 and 2 of the 2018 season, his first year as a full-time starter.
This will be the fifth time he’s faced Lamar Jackson and the first time he’s faced him in the playoffs. Mahomes went 2-2 ATS (50%) and 3-1 SU (75%) in those games, with three of them being decided by a combined nine points. Their matchup in the 2020 season was a 34-20 victory for the Chiefs.
The Trends
Here’s a look at the trends that point toward the Chiefs covering:
- Mahomes is 11-5 ATS (68.8%) and 13-3 SU (81.3%) as a starter in the playoffs in his career; tied with Joe Flacco for the best of any QB in the Super Bowl era (min. 15 starts), while the win percentage is the best of any QB in the Super Bowl era (min. 10 playoff starts).
- Mahomes is 3-2 ATS and SU (60%) as a starter in the AFC title game in his career.
- Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS (90.9%) and 9-3 SU (75%) as an underdog in his career (regular season and playoffs).
- Chiefs are 25-14-2 ATS (64.1%) and 21-20 SU (51.2%) as an underdog under Andy Reid (regular season and playoffs).
- Andy Reid is 8-3-1 (72.7%) and 5-7 SU (41.7%) as an underdog in the playoffs for his career (Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles).
Shanahan dominates ATS in the playoffs
Shanahan has had huge success in the playoffs, as he’s looking to make his second Super Bowl appearance in just seven seasons as a head coach.
Below are some of the noteworthy trends he’s posted during his time in San Francisco:
- Shanahan is 7-3 ATS and SU (70%) in the playoffs for his career, the best win percentage of any coach who has not won a Super Bowl or NFL championship.
- Shanahan is 4-1 ATS (80%) and 5-0 SU when a favorite in the playoffs, with the lone non-cover coming last week against the Green Bay Packers as 10.5-point favorites.
- Shanahan is 4-1 ATS (80%) and 5-0 SU when playing at home in the playoffs, again with the lone non-cover coming last week against the Packers.
- Last week, Shanahan recorded his first win when trailing by 5-plus points entering the fourth quarter, now 1-31 SU (3.1%) for his career in such situations (regular season and playoffs).
No. 1 seeds ATS, Overs hit
The historical data shows that the top seed in the conference championship round has a strong track record of winning, regardless of the time frame considered. For instance, even when looking at 10-season intervals, the lowest win percentage for the No. 1 seed in this round is 70.8%, dating all the way back to the 1990 season. However, if we narrow the scope to just the last 13 seasons (since 2010), the win rate skyrockets to an impressive 77.8%.
When analyzing the data, it becomes clear that the strongest trend is the frequency with which the Over hits. In every 10-season interval, the Over dominates, with the numbers showing that going back to the 1990 season, the Over has hit in 28 of 48 conference title games with just one push – a remarkable 58.3% hit rate.
- Since 2010, the 1-seed is 11-7 ATS (61.1%) and 14-4 SU (77.8%) in the conference championship round, with the Over hitting in nine of those games (one push).
- Since 2000, the 1-seed is 18-14 ATS (56.3%) and 24-8 SU (75%) in the conference championship round, with the Over hitting in 18 of those games (one push).
- Since 1990, the 1-seed is 26-22 ATS (54.2%) and 34-14 SU (70.8%) in the conference championship round, with the Over hitting in 28 of those games (one push).
- Since 1980, the 1-seed is 38-26 ATS (59.4%) and 47-17 SU (73.4%) in the conference championship round; Over/Under data is only available for 53 of those games, Over-hit in 31 of them (one push).
The no. 3 seed struggles historically
In the conference championship game of the Super Bowl era, teams seeded at 3 are 7-10 against the spread (41.2%) and 4-13 straight up (23.5%). Only four teams have made it to the Super Bowl as a 3-seed: the 1979 Rams, the 1987 Washington team, the 2003 Carolina Panthers, and the 2006 Indianapolis Colts.
To account for the playoff expansion, we also looked at the performance of 3-seeds in the divisional round. In the Super Bowl era, they went 29-35-2 against the spread (45.3%) and 19-47 straight up (28.8%). Since 2000, 3-seeds have gone 5-3 against the spread (62.5%) and 2-6 straight up (25%) in the conference championship game.
The 2003 Panthers and the 2006 Colts are the only two teams to have won in this span.