NFL Championship Weekend Betting
It’s time for our NFL Championship Weekend Betting guide, as two massive matchups are set to take place on Sunday. Be sure to click the banner above to get a deposit bonus of up to $1,000!
(3) Chiefs at (1) Ravens
3 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BAL -3.5 (44.5)
Focus of the Game:
This is the first time Mahomes and Jackson will face each other in the playoffs. During the regular season, Mahomes has won three out of four games against Jackson, which is the highest number of wins for any starting quarterback against Jackson, considering both regular season and playoffs. In their most recent game in 2021, Jackson defeated Mahomes and the Chiefs by rushing for 107 yards and scoring three touchdowns. Jackson’s third touchdown was the winning score, and he celebrated by flipping into the end zone.
Big Prediction:
At least 45 points will be scored when the Ravens and Chiefs play. In the regular season, these two teams had the best scoring defense. Baltimore allowed 16.5 points per game while Kansas City allowed 17.3 points. However, Jackson and Mahomes will be unstoppable, and both teams will score more than 20 points.
The Stat to know:
Steve Spagnuolo has been the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator since 2019. In that time no team has allowed more rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks (26) in the regular season than the Chiefs.
A Big Factor:
Mahomes’ ability to run out of the pocket and improvise with his legs will be crucial in the upcoming game. The Chiefs have been facing challenges in their passing game throughout the season, and it’s going to be even more difficult against Baltimore. The Ravens have the second-lowest open score allowed to opposing receivers according to receiver tracking metrics, and they also lead the league in sacks with 60. Therefore, Mahomes will need to rely on his scrambling skills to create plays and generate yardage during Sunday’s game.
Gameplan Dynamics:
Man coverage is a preferred defensive strategy for Kansas City’s defense in the red zone, particularly when defending their own 10-yard line. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken of Baltimore should have effective countermeasures to this, such as having Jackson’s receivers run crossers and delay their releases. In terms of red zone efficiency, the Ravens were ranked eighth this season, with a 61.8% touchdown scoring rate on their trips inside the 20.
Refs a concern?
Shawn Smith led a crew that issued the third-highest number of flags during the regular season. On average, they threw 14.8 flags per game. Moreover, Smith’s crew has a reputation for calling roughness penalties more frequently than other crews. In particular, they issued the third-most roughing-the-passer penalties (eight), and the most unnecessary roughness penalties (25) of any crew in the league.
Betting Perspective:
Mahomes has won three out of four games against Jackson and has covered the spread twice. In three of the four games played, the total combined score was more than the set line, with all matches producing a score of at least 51 points. The average over/under for the previous four games was 52.4, with none of them going below 49.
12oz Sports Simulator: Baltimore 26 Kansas City 24
My Prediction: Ravens 27 Chiefs 19
http://tickets.12ozsports.com/tickets/6087323/afc-championship-game-baltimore-ravens-vs-kansas-city-chiefs-tickets-sun-jan-28-2024-mt-bank-stadium
(3) Lions at (1) 49ers
6:30 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: SF -7 (50.5)
Storyline of the Game:
The 49ers, known as the established playoff favorite, will face off against the Lions, the upstart postseason underdog. San Francisco has the distinction of making its NFL-record 19th conference championship game appearance, while Detroit is appearing in just its second conference title game of the Super Bowl era, and its first since the 1991 season.
This upcoming game has the potential to be a highly physical matchup between two of the league’s toughest teams. The performance of the Niners’ run defense will be key in determining if the Lions, who have a strong two-headed rushing attack with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, can pull off an upset. The Niners’ run defense ranks 25th in rushing yards allowed (128.6) and 28th in yards per carry allowed (4.8) since Week 15.
Big Prediction:
In his third consecutive playoff game, Gibbs will score a touchdown. Only five NFL rookies, namely Sony Michel, Tim Hightower, Jamal Lewis, William Floyd, and Tony Dorsett, have scored touchdowns in three playoff games. However, Gibbs is poised to become the sixth rookie to achieve this rare feat.
Key Stat:
The 49ers have been the toughest team to tackle in the NFL this season, leading the league in yards after contact (95.3 per game). In the NFC Championship Game, the Lions’ defense will look to put a stop to that, as it leads the league in yards after contact allowed per game (63.5).
Difference Maker:
Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions have the weakest pass defense among the remaining playoff teams, as they ranked 30th in EPA per dropback throughout the season. Hutchinson is a player who has the potential to make a difference, and he has stepped up his game in the postseason. He has a pass rush win rate of 29%, which is more than twice his regular-season number, and he has recorded 8.0 sacks in his last four games. As the underdog, Detroit needs a game-changing moment from Hutchinson, such as a strip sack, to level the playing field in this matchup.
Gameplan Key:
It’s important for Detroit to disrupt Purdy’s rhythm by applying pressure. The Lions are highly ranked in blitz rate on first and second down, including the playoffs, with a rate of 28.3% which places them in the top 10. Detroit must not allow Purdy to throw with comfort and prevent coach Kyle Shanahan from dictating the tempo of the game.
Penalties to look for:
Clete Blakeman’s officiating crew in the regular season was very attentive to the NFL’s emphasis on offensive offside penalties during the middle of the season. As a result, they threw the most flags for these penalties, a total of five. Additionally, the crew ranked second in the league for flags related to defensive pass coverage, including illegal contact, defensive pass interference, and defensive holding. The total number of flags thrown for these types of penalties was 53.
Betting Keys:
The Lions are 13-6 against the spread this season, the second-best mark behind the Raiders (12-5). Overs are 12-7 in Lions games. The 49ers are 9-9 against the spread this season with overs going 10-8.
12oz Sports Simulator: 49ers 35 Lions 29
My Prediction: 49ers 31 Lions 20
http://tickets.12ozsports.com/tickets/6087373/nfc-championship-game-san-francisco-49ers-vs-detroit-lions-tickets-sun-jan-28-2024-levis-stadium