Conference Championship Betting Picks
Conference Title Time
Three of the Power 5 Conference Title games have direct playoff implications, here are our Conference Championship betting picks! Click the banner above to get a $1,000 deposit bonus. just for signing up!
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 3 Washington (8 p.m. ET Friday, ABC)
The Washington Huskies defeated the Oregon Ducks 36-33 in Seattle as 3-point favorites on October 14.
These long-time rivals are scheduled to clash once more on Friday night for the ultimate Pac-12 championship game. The winner will not only get into the playoffs but will also acquire the bragging rights over their rival for years to come.
In contrast to their first game, which had Washington as a slight favorite at home, this one will take place on a neutral site, with Oregon favored by 9.5 points. That is a 12-point change in just seven weeks.
The Road to Vegas
By finishing the season 12-0, the Huskies became the first team to go undefeated in the Pac-12 conference since its expansion in 2011. Washington is currently on a 19-game winning streak, including two victories over Oregon, a win over Texas in the bowl game, and wins over Arizona and Oregon State this season.
Remarkably, the Huskies have won 10 out of the 19 games by eight points or less, making them a perfect 10-0 in one-score games in that stretch. This is quite an achievement, given that the Georgia Bulldogs have gone 41-1 in their remarkable three-year run, with only five games out of their last 42 finishing within eight points, and in those contests, they went 5-0.
To emphasize this trend even more, the Huskies have won their last eight games by 10 points or fewer. While winning close games is worth celebrating, it is not a sustainable winning model.
With a single loss to Washington, Oregon is 11-1 and has since dominated its opponents.
Pac-12 Network on Twitter: “No. 7 Washington survives an epic battle against No. 8 Oregon at Husky Stadium. Highlights ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/DW1UzwuUy1 / Twitter”
No. 7 Washington survives an epic battle against No. 8 Oregon at Husky Stadium. Highlights ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/DW1UzwuUy1
Their average margin of victory over seven common opponents is 27 points, whereas Washington’s is only nine.
Oregon is superior in almost every significant statistical category, with defense being the key differentiator. In their initial encounter, Oregon gained over 100 yards more than Washington. They also won the turnover battle, were better on third down, and played a cleaner game in the trenches. However, Washington went 2-3 on fourth down, while Oregon was 0-3. That included two failed fourth-down attempts inside the Washington 10-yard line.
Washington’s capability to neutralize any issue with its offensive skill position players is why the Huskies are so dangerous and is a cause for concern for Oregon.
Quarterback Michael Penix Jr and wide receiver Rome Ozdune have a special connection that makes any defense fearful. Those two can change a game at any moment. When combined with Jalen McMillian, Jalynn Polk, running back Dillon Johnson, and their exceptional offensive line, this group becomes incredibly dangerous.
Is Penix Jr still hurt?
It is worth noting that Penix is not the same player he was at the beginning of the season. After five games, he completed 74.8% of his passes with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions, while the team scored 46 points per game.
In comparison, over the last seven games, Penix has only completed 59% of his passes with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions, while the team’s scoring has dropped to 32 points per game. In their last two games, the Huskies have scored 22 and 24 points.
Washington fans may read this and believe that I am just another Oregon supporter confident about this game, and they are correct. Oregon is playing better and has a more extensive roster.
Washington has proven itself in close games, but that eventually catches up to you.
Best Bets
Oregon (-9.5) to win by more than 9.5 points. Additionally:
Troy Franklin Over 105.5 — Washington allowed 154 yards to Franklin in the last game, and the Huskies are 124th in passing yards allowed this season.
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 16 Iowa (8 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX and FOX Sports app)
Michigan presents a tough challenge for many football teams. Iowa has yet to face a team of similar quality this season. The Hawkeyes suffered a 31-0 loss to Penn State (whom Michigan beat) and have struggled to move the ball effectively throughout the season. Despite their offensive struggles, Iowa’s defense has been impressive. However, even a strong defense like theirs could eventually falter against Michigan’s offense.
Michigan ranks second in points per drive on defense and has faced tougher offenses than Iowa, yet has still allowed under 10 points in almost every game this season. Iowa’s defense is legitimate, but if their offense is unable to move the ball effectively, Michigan will wear them down over time.
Michigan has played against defenses similar to Iowa’s and has managed to score in the 20s. Therefore, I believe Michigan will win this game by at least 22 points.
Best Bets
Michigan (-21.5) to win by more than 21 points and the under for a combined total of 35 points scored by both teams.
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No. 18 Oklahoma State vs. No. 7 Texas (Noon ET Saturday, ABC)
Oklahoma State’s offense ranks 63rd in points per drive, while their running back Ollie Gordon has almost 1,600 yards with a 6.4 yards per carry average. However, their rushing success rate is ranked 73rd and their stuff rate is ranked 116th, meaning their running game is not as successful as it could be.
Texas Football on Twitter: “🏆 Big 12 Championship 🏆 🏈 Texas vs. Oklahoma State📅 Saturday, Dec. 2 | 11:00 AM CT📍 Arlington, TX | AT&T Stadium📺 ABC pic.twitter.com/GXBkGAm93i / Twitter”
🏆 Big 12 Championship 🏆 🏈 Texas vs. Oklahoma State📅 Saturday, Dec. 2 | 11:00 AM CT📍 Arlington, TX | AT&T Stadium📺 ABC pic.twitter.com/GXBkGAm93i
This one-dimensional approach will be a struggle for them against the strong Texas defense. Texas, on the other hand, has a powerful offense and Oklahoma State’s defense has not been performing well lately. They’ve allowed 45, 43, and 40 points in the last three games. Texas ranks 30th in points per drive offensively and has a strong offensive line, which can help them dominate Oklahoma State.
Best Bets
Texas will cover the spread and win by more than 15 points.